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Analysis of COVID-19: An infectious disease spread Md Amiruzzaman1+, Mahnaz
Rafia Islam2, Md. Rajibul Islam2, and Rizal Mohd Nor3
1West Chester University, West Chester,
PA, USA 2University of Asia Pacific, Dhaka 1205,
Bangladesh 3International Islamic University Malaysia,
Selangor, Malaysia Abstract This study utilizes the
Logistic Growth Curve (LGC) based forecast model to assess the effectiveness
of Stay At Home (SAH) Order on COVID-19 pandemic spread in California while
making comparisons and visualizations for multiple countries. In comparing
results, previous work relied on confirmed or death cases which not
scientifically valid due to the differences of population sizes of each
country. We presented several methods being used in the past and how we
utilize percentages, normalization and derivatives to help our evaluation and
comparisons of several countries using our model. Our approach compared the
spread of the virus considering the growth rate and developed a quantitative
measure that can help compare quantitatively between multiple states or countries.
In our analysis, we showed evidence to suggest that the forecast results
correspond to the progress and effectiveness of the SAH Order in flattening
the curve, which is useful in controlling the spike in the number of active
COVID-19 patients. Keywords: COVID-19,
virus spread, Logistic Growth Curve, prediction, Stay At Home +: Corresponding author: Md Amiruzzaman Journal of Internet Services and
Information Security (JISIS), 12(3): 1-15, August 2022 |